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Last Updated, Oct 6, 2022, 4:01 PM
Bank of Canada Chief Leans Into Hawkish Rate Path, Jolting Bonds
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Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem said he remains firmly on an interest rate hiking path amid worries about elevated domestic price pressures and inflation expectations becoming entrenched.

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(Bloomberg) — Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem said he remains firmly on an interest rate hiking path amid worries about elevated domestic price pressures and inflation expectations becoming entrenched.

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Macklem, in a speech Thursday, painted a picture of an economy that is still “clearly” in excess demand, with businesses facing an extremely tight labor market, with wage gains broadening and underlying inflation pressures showing no signs of easing.

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Canada two-year benchmark yields hit the highest level since 2007 on his comments, jumping more than 5 basis points to as high as 3.976%. Traders increased their bets on a 50-basis-point rate increase at the next policy decision on Sept. 26. 

He said that while a recent slowdown in the headline annual reading is “welcome news”, inflation will “not fade away by itself.”

“Simply put, there is more to be done,” Macklem said, according to prepared remarks to the Halifax Chamber of Commerce. “The clear implication is that further interest rate increases are warranted.”

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In an apparent signal the central bank doesn’t see itself near the end of its hiking cycle, Macklem said: “We will need additional information before we consider moving to a more finely balanced decision-by-decision approach.”

The hawkish comments will likely cement expectations that the Bank Canada will deliver another outsized hike to its 3.25% policy rate at the Oct. 26 decision.

Macklem has already increased borrowing costs by 3 percentage points since March. Before the speech, markets were pricing in a 50 basis-point increase this month, and another 25-basis-point hike in December.

More Highlights

  • Macklem said there is some evidence global inflationary forces have begun to ease. But price pressures are increasingly becoming domestic and shifting toward services, which means inflation won’t fall without tightening monetary policy, he said
  • Officials can’t count on easing global pressure to lower inflation in Canada for three reasons, Macklem said. It will take time for global factors to filter in, the recent depreciation of the Canadian dollar will fuel costs of US goods, and there’s considerable uncertainty about evolution of supply chains and commodity prices
  • The central banker reiterated his commitment to the Bank of Canada’s 2% inflation target, and urged Canadians to make wage and price decisions based on the assumption it will succeed
  • Wage growth has risen and continues to broaden, Macklem said, and businesses are passing higher input costs onto consumers
  • Higher borrowing costs are beginning to have some effect, particularly in what had been an excessively overheated housing market, he said
  • Macklem said the Bank of Canada is now more focused on the trim and median measures of core inflation while it reassesses CPI-common, which has been subject to large revisions
  • The longer high inflation persists and the more pervasive it becomes, the greater the risk that high inflation becomes entrenched, he said, again flagging the risk of wage-price spiral that could make high inflation self-fulfilling
  • Survey results of consumer and business expectations due later this month will be important for the bank’s assessment of how expectations have evolved, Macklem said

(Updates with two-year market reaction in third paragraph)

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