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Last Updated, Apr 17, 2023, 4:36 AM
European Central Bank to Lift Deposit Rate to 3.75% Peak in July, Survey Shows
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(Bloomberg) — The European Central Bank is set for three more quarter-point increases in interest rates in May, June and July, economists polled by Bloomberg say. 

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That would take the deposit rate to 3.75%, where it would stay through the rest of the year, according to the April 5-13 survey. 

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The survey shows economist expectations are broadly in line with those of investors, who’ve pared back bets on the peak of this cycle of hikes following the banking collapses in the US and Switzerland. Speaking last week on the sidelines of the International Monetary Fund’s Spring Meetings, ECB officials were almost unanimous in calling for borrowing costs to be raised further on May 4, though the size of that move — likely 25 or 50 basis points — remains up for debate. 

The recent financial-sector turmoil may help the ECB by tightening credit conditions, President Christine Lagarde said Sunday.

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“If they don’t lend too much credit and if they manage their risk, it might reduce the work that we have to do to reduce inflation,” she told CBS’s ‘Face the Nation.’ “But if they reduce credit too much, then it will weigh on growth excessively. So it’s a fine balance.” 

Lagarde may elaborate in a speech Monday at the Council on Foreign Relations in New York.

Euro-area inflation — while slowing considerably this year — is still more than three times the ECB’s 2% target and a core measure that strips out volatile elements like food and energy is hitting fresh records every month.

Underlying inflation might have peaked in regard to quarterly averages, but will still be at 5.5% this quarter and is set to surpass the headline number in the second half of this year, the Bloomberg survey shows.

—With assistance from Alexander Weber.

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