FORT COLLINS — Speculators were thought to have started off the month as modest buyers of Chicago grains and oilseeds while futures clawed back from a virus-fueled selloff, but corn was the only true beneficiary as funds defended near-record bullish bets for the date.
That immediately follows index funds’ unprecedented corn and wheat exodus at the end of November as the rise of a new coronavirus variant sparked fears the pandemic could worsen, slowing global economic activity.
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Chicago wheat futures forged new nine-year highs on nearly half of last month’s sessions, but investors have been hesitant all year to offer a strong vote of confidence. They have been much less shy with corn and have not been pessimistic toward the yellow grain since August 2020.
In the week ended Dec. 7, money managers increased their net long position in CBOT corn futures and options to 332,501 contracts from 315,269 a week earlier based on data from the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission, and that was due to both new longs and short covering. (https://tmsnrt.rs/3pSOEA2)
Index traders and other speculators’ views on corn were relatively unchanged on the week. Most-active corn futures rose 3.3% in the week ended Dec. 7, mostly on general grain strength and ideas that the virus-fueled selloff was overdone.
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CBOT wheat, soybean and soybean product futures gained between 2.3% and 3.4% through Dec. 7, but both bullish and bearish traders were in retreat mode during the week. The managed money soybean net long expanded by about 4,500 to 37,882 futures and options contracts, but that was only because short covering slightly offset a reduction in longs.
Funds’ soybean oil net long dropped by around 5,500 to 58,828 futures and options contracts, a 10-week low, and their soybean meal net long fell by nearly 10,000 to 27,898 contracts.
Money managers’ net long in Chicago wheat nearly vanished through Dec. 7, dropping to 721 from 6,200 futures and options contracts in the prior week as longs pulled out of the market. Their Minneapolis net long was down about 1,700 to 12,545 futures and options contracts, a 17-week low.
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Funds’ bullish Kansas City bets fell for a second straight week, to 59,575 futures and options contracts from 62,368 a week before, but that is still their most optimistic hard red winter wheat view for the date. Their spring wheat stance is challenging 2007 and 2010 for the largest ever on the date.
The U.S. Department of Agriculture’s monthly update on Thursday was bearish, as larger Australian and Russian crops padded world wheat stocks. U.S. wheat exports were also cut to a six-year low as high prices have trimmed demand.
That sent Chicago and K.C. wheat futures nearly 3% lower in the last three sessions, though Friday featured a small recovery in prices. Losses in Minneapolis futures for the period were lighter at 1.4%.
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USDA made no changes to U.S. corn or soybean supply and demand and global tweaks were minor, but a primary focus for those markets last week was the U.S. government’s proposed cuts to biofuel blending mandates on Tuesday.
Those numbers, which reflected lower 2020 and 2021 volumes than originally promised, were nearly identical to the leaked figures from September. The proposed volume for 2022 marked an increase from previous iterations, but the numbers spooked traders, particularly regarding soybean oil.
Most-active soybean oil futures plunged 6% over the last three sessions and reached a six-month low on Friday. However, soybean meal surged 4.9%, and the CBOT oilshare on Friday hit seven-month lows. Oilshare evaluates soyoil’s share of value in the soy products.
CBOT corn fared much better with the biofuel news, drifting 0.7% higher between Wednesday and Friday, and soybeans rose 1.4%. Commodity funds during that period are seen as sellers of wheat and soyoil, and buyers of soybeans, meal and corn.
(Editing by Matthew Lewis)
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