MOSCOW, Russia: Amidst the planned reopening of the Moscow Exchange this week after a four-week shutdown, trading in Russian stocks listed on international exchanges remains on pause indefinitely, considerably increasing the risk of default for these companies.

According to data from S&P Global Market Intelligence, since stock exchanges around the world stopped trading in Russia-linked companies due to the invasion of the Ukraine, the median one-year market signal probability of default for nearly two dozen foreign-listed Russian enterprises rose more than 20 percent, surging to 23.1 percent on 8th March from just 2.5 percent on 21st February.

The data also calculated the probability of default based on the share price movements in 16 Russian companies listed on exchanges in the UK, the U.S., Singapore and Australia, as well as six Russia-connected companies based abroad, primarily trading on the London Stock Exchange.

Compared to just weeks before the broad-based rise in risk, when the probability of all but two companies was in the single-digits, the probability of these companies defaulting now ranges from 7.60 percent to 57.57 percent.

On 3rd March, the London Stock Exchange suspended trading in 28 companies with strong links to Russia, while in the U.S., the Nasdaq and New York Stock Exchange also halted trading in stocks of Russian-based companies on 28th February.

After a near month-long hiatus, since 25th February, Russia’s central bank said its stock market will have a partial re-opening this week, with 33 securities being traded.

On 17th March, just two weeks after it downgraded Russia into junk territory over increased default risks related to the Ukraine conflict, S&P Global Ratings, whose credit ratings are independent from the implied credit scores generated by S&P Global Market Intelligence, cut Russia’s foreign and local currency credit ratings to CC from CCC-.