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NEW YORK — The U.S. dollar rose against
major currencies on Thursday as a shot of positive economic news
contrasted with comments from the European Central Bank that
euro zone weakness still requires the support of its current
pace of bond purchases.
The move was reinforced late in the day by a risk-off,
dollar bid when news broke that U.S. President Joe Biden will
propose nearly doubling taxes on capital gains for people
earning more than $1 million.
The dollar index against major currencies was up 0.2%
to 91,303 in the late afternoon in New York after markets sifted
through the ECB remarks and news that U.S. new unemployment
claims had fallen to a 13-month low, setting the stage for
blockbuster jobs growth in April.
The euro had been up about 0.1% against the dollar
before the events, but later fell 0.2% on the day to $1.201.
ECB chief Christine Lagarde said policy makers had not
discussed any phasing out the bond-buying program “because it
premature.” She said the economy is still “clouded with
uncertainty” despite signs of improvement and progress with
vaccinations.
Euro zone bond yields dipped after Lagarde spoke.
“Until you see better COVID numbers out of Europe, the
euro’s upside potential is going to be limited,” said Ronald
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Simpson, managing director, global currency analyst at Action
Economics in Safety Harbor, Florida.
Simpson added that if Biden’s tax proposal goes forward it
could hurt the greenback if it spurs stock investors with big
gains to sell before it takes effect.
“That might keep pressure on the stock market, on and off,
for the rest of the year, which would not bode well for the
dollar if we start seeing outflows from U.S. equities,” Simpson
said.
The immediate impact was “not too serious,” said Erik
Bregar, head of FX strategy at Exchange Bank of Canada.
“We’re seeing an extension of this morning’s move post-ECB,”
Bregar said. “It is a classic risk-off, U.S. dollar bid.”
The currency markets initially vacillated over what Lagarde
revealed about the timing of interest rate hikes.
Alex Merk, chief investment officer at Merk Investments in
Palo Alto, California, said the market heard that the ECB would
like to pace its rate moves with those of the U.S. central bank
but also that the two economies have different inflation
trajectories.
In the end, Merk said, “there was no big substance there.”
The back-and-forth of the currencies on Thursday morning was
another example of how markets have been preoccupied with
sorting out how quickly different economies will rebound from
the pandemic and how their interest rates will fluctuate.
On Wednesday the Canadian dollar rose sharply after the Bank
of Canada signaled rate hikes next year and said it was pulling
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back on asset purchases. The announcement marked the first Group
of Seven central bank to move towards withdrawing stimulus.
Now markets are looking toward next week’s meeting of the
U.S. Federal Reserve and possible comments about how it views
future changes in its easy monetary policy.
Yields on were little changed on the day at 1.55% despite
rising about four basis points at one point.
Sentiment toward the dollar has weakened much of this month
after a March spike in Treasury yields reversed course. But
some analysts say the outlook over the longer term remains
positive due to a strong U.S. economy and more coronavirus
vaccinations.
Merk said, “Ultimately what matters is the progress with the
pandemic” and what that means for a global recovery, inflation
and interest rates.
In cryptocurrency markets, ethereum jumped as
much as 10% during the day. Bitcoin slipped about 2%
to $52,800.
========================================================
Currency bid prices at 3:31PM (1931 GMT)
Description RIC Last U.S. Close Pct Change YTD Pct High Bid Low Bid
Previous Change
Session
Dollar index 91.3030 91.1100 +0.22% 1.469% +91.4250 +90.9980
Euro/Dollar $1.2010 $1.2036 -0.20% -1.69% +$1.2070 +$1.1994
Dollar/Yen 108.0350 108.0400 +0.00% +4.56% +108.2300 +107.8150
Euro/Yen 129.74 130.03 -0.22% +2.22% +130.4600 +129.6800
Dollar/Swiss 0.9178 0.9172 +0.08% +3.75% +0.9191 +0.9145
Sterling/Dollar $1.3839 $1.3927 -0.64% +1.29% +$1.3948 +$1.3825
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Dollar/Canadian 1.2501 1.2495 +0.06% -1.81% +1.2534 +1.2473
Aussie/Dollar $0.7707 $0.7753 -0.62% +0.16% +$0.7764 +$0.7692
Euro/Swiss 1.1021 1.1033 -0.11% +1.98% +1.1047 +1.1015
Euro/Sterling 0.8677 0.8641 +0.42% -2.91% +0.8702 +0.8635
NZ $0.7160 $0.7209 -0.69% -0.31% +$0.7213 +$0.7148
Dollar/Dollar
Dollar/Norway 8.3720 8.3410 +0.51% -2.37% +8.3910 +8.3130
Euro/Norway 10.0577 10.0368 +0.21% -3.91% +10.0729 +10.0127
Dollar/Sweden 8.4326 8.4015 +0.10% +2.88% +8.4506 +8.3861
Euro/Sweden 10.1283 10.1180 +0.10% +0.52% +10.1387 +10.1040
(Reporting by David Henry in New York and Ritvik Carvalho in
London; additional reporting by Stanley White in Tokyo; editing
by Larry King, William Maclean and Andrew Heavens)
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