Peak Gas Season Demand Fails to Materialize in Asia as Oil Pessimism Persists

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(Bloomberg) — Gasoline markets in Asia are rapidly weakening during what should be the region’s peak season in another bearish sign for oil demand.

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Profits from producing gasoline from crude — so-called crack spreads — have more than halved in Singapore over the past month to the lowest level since December, according to data from Bloomberg Fair Value. On a seasonal basis, margins are lower than the previous two years, the figures show.

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Some refiners in Asia are already considering cuts to processing as margins for producing diesel sink, with weakness in gasoline adding to a bearish outlook for crude, even after OPEC+ pledged surprise output cuts. Increased fuel exports from China are also adding to the region’s supplies, traders said.

Traders have attributed the weakness to slower demand in major consuming nations such as Indonesia, which typically sees gasoline imports jump ahead of the Eid festival, when people travel home to be with family. Eid festivities are taking place over the weekend.

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Indonesia’s gasoline consumption has been around 635,000 barrels a day this month, according to data from Rystad Energy. While demand was significantly lower during the same period in 2020 due to Covid, motor fuel use this year is 11,000 barrels a day below pre-pandemic levels in 2019, figures show.

Overall imports of the fuel across Southeast Asia in April have been 6% lower than five-year seasonal average, figures from Kpler show. 

At Asia’s oil storage hub of Singapore, stockpiles of light distillates —  a category that includes gasoline — are at the highest level for this time of the year since 1995, according to data from the government.

However, gasoline demand in Europe has been resilient and is forecast to grow, according to a report from Energy Aspects this month. Investors will also be watching consumption figures from the US during the summer, the nation’s peak period for motor fuel use.

—With assistance from Eko Listiyorini and Serene Cheong.