Teams up two nothing have won the title 81 percent of the time, according to World Series history, and that single statistic now hangs over Game 3 at Tropicana Field. Milwaukee leads Tampa Bay 2-0 after winning 3-2 on Friday and 5-4 on Saturday, and the Brewers are two wins from their first World Series title. The Rays, who have never won a World Series either, must now do what only about one team in five in their position has done: win four of the next five games against a team that has already beaten them twice by one run.
Why the number is not a curse
History is a guide, not a verdict, and the Rays’ own series shows why. Tampa Bay led 4-0 after the first inning of Game 2, with Liam Hicks hitting a two run homer, before Milwaukee came back through Sal Frelick’s sixth inning homer and Cooper Pratt’s seventh inning single. A team that can build a four run lead in a World Series game can win a World Series game, and the Rays have the pitching for Game 3 in Freddy Peralta, the former Brewer who starts against Milwaukee left hander Robert Gasser on Monday night at 8 p.m. Eastern time. The 81 percent figure counts series that were already effectively decided by Game 3, and series that were still live. Tampa Bay’s task is to prove this series belongs in the second group, by winning Monday and turning a 2-0 deficit into a 2-1 series with two more home games to play.
What the number does tell you
The statistic matters because it measures something real about best of seven baseball: a team that wins twice first usually has the better bullpen, the better late game nerve, or both, and those advantages tend to persist. Milwaukee’s two wins both came late, through a bullpen that held Tampa Bay scoreless when it mattered and a lineup that found runs in the sixth and seventh innings. Neither the Brewers nor the Rays has won a World Series, so the matchup will produce a first time champion, and the series is expected to be baseball’s first played entirely indoors. For Tampa Bay, the way to beat history is unglamorous: clean defence, a long start from Peralta, and an early lead protected this time. History says that is not enough, most of the time. Game 3 is Tampa Bay’s chance to show that most of the time is not this time.
