Tuesday inflation report will carry no official year over year figure, and the reason is a gap in the data that is a year old. The Bureau of Labor Statistics will publish the October consumer price index at 8:30 a.m. Eastern, but it will not publish a 12 month change, because it has no October 2025 index to compare against.
Why it matters
The gap dates to last year 43 day government shutdown, which ran from October 1 through November 12. The agency was unable to collect data during last year government shutdown, so it never released a price index for last October, and without that index there is no year over year calculation to make. The 12 month change is the most widely cited measure of inflation in the American economy, and for one month it will simply not exist.
Economists have filled the gap themselves. Their own estimates put the annual rate near 3.9 percent, up from 3.7 percent, and the Reuters consensus calls for a 0.3 percent monthly rise in October, down from 0.6 percent in September, with core prices up 0.2 percent. The monthly number will carry more weight than usual, because it is the only official number there is.
What happens next
The missing figure matters for the Federal Reserve as well. Tuesday report is the last inflation reading before the central bank final meeting of the year on December 8 and 9, and the November report comes out the day after that meeting. Governor Christopher Waller has already said the Fed ought to raise rates in December even if inflation cooled, and markets fully price a hike. The Federal Reserve officially targets 2 percent inflation, as measured by the Personal Consumption Expenditures price index, and Tuesday report will be read against that target.
What happens next will be decided by the monthly print, and by whether the market treats it as a verdict or a footnote. A hot number would lock in the December hike and punish growth stocks, while a cool one would let the market rally extend. Either way, the missing year over year figure is a reminder that statistics depend on the people who collect them, and a shutdown can haunt the data a year later.
