With three days left before Alberta votes on whether to begin the legal process toward a future separation referendum, Canada is heading into the most consequential weekend of its political year. Prime Minister Mark Carney told a packed Calgary rally on Thursday night that voters should treat Monday’s ballot as a defining moment for the country.
“Vote like Canada depends on it, because it does,” Carney told the Forever Canadian rally at the BMO Centre, where his office estimated about 5,000 people had gathered. Some in the crowd waited more than two hours to clear security. Carney warned that outside forces were working to break Canada so they could “own us”, and said the referendum had arrived at the worst possible time.
What is actually on the ballot
Monday’s vote is not a direct referendum on independence. Albertans will decide whether to remain a province or to instruct the provincial government to begin the legal process toward a future referendum on separation. A Leger poll in early October found 70 per cent of Albertans wish to stay in Canada, but Carney urged supporters not to be complacent and to turn out.
Premier Danielle Smith, who called the referendum, cast her own ballot on Wednesday to remain, while acknowledging that support for the separation path was higher than she would like. Advance polling continues through Saturday.
The weekend that will decide it
Carney holds a second major rally in Edmonton on Friday as the campaign enters its final stretch. His message has been sharpened by fresh remarks from south of the border: US President Donald Trump said in Arizona on Wednesday that Canada would end up becoming the 51st American state, reviving annexation rhetoric that has strained relations between the two longstanding neighbours.
It has been a week in which identity and cross-border ties have dominated the national conversation, with hard questions also asked about US–Canada climate cooperation and, in American politics, about the Texas Senate race. Monday’s vote now caps a remarkable stretch for North America.
Carney, who grew up in Alberta, spent Thursday campaigning across Calgary before the evening rally, pointing to firefighters who travel from across the country to battle Alberta’s wildfires as an example of the ties binding the province to the rest of Canada. “We are stronger together and Canada is worth fighting for,” he told volunteers.
